Above-normal hurricane season predicted, Georgians should prepare

Weather forecasters are predicting another above-normal hurricane season, and Georgians should be prepared, particularly with the lessons learned from last year's turbulent and historic season.

For the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA predicts 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. On average, the North Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

An unprecedented 28 hurricanes and tropical storms formed in the Atlantic Basin last year. Seven of the storms hit the U.S. coastline, including Hurricane Katrina, which actually made landfall twice, sweeping along the tip of southern Florida before veering north into the Gulf and turning her fury on the Louisiana-Mississippi coast. The 2005 season also marked the first time that weather officials exhausted the designated list of names and had to turn to the Greek alphabet.

State climatologist Dr. David Stooksbury, meanwhile, is cautioning that this year's hurricane season could begin early. Stooksbury says surface temperatures in the Caribbean have already reached the critical 82-degree mark necessary for tropical storm development and that temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are nearing that point. These abnormally warm temperatures increase the probability of an active, early start to the season, he concludes.

Hurricanes and tropical storms can develop before the official beginning of the season. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) archives, the earliest observed Atlantic hurricane occurred on March 7, 1908. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. coast was Alma, which hit on June 9, 1966.

"It really doesn't matter how many storms are predicted," says Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) director Charley English. "It only takes the one that makes landfall close to home to impact a community, and we need to be prepared for that."

The Office of Homeland Security (OHS)-GEMA encourages Georgians to develop a family disaster plan, beginning with an awareness of the threats posed by hurricanes such as storm surge, high winds, flooding, thunderstorms and tornadoes. Residents of coastal areas should also be ready to evacuate immediately if necessary, know their evacuation destination, and develop a family reunification plan in case they become separated. Families with pets should make plans in advance for what they would do with their animals in the event of an evacuation.

It is also essential to pack a family disaster kit, including bottled water, non-perishable food, extra clothing and bedding, a flashlight and a radio, extra batteries, and medicines and personal hygiene items. Most importantly, have a battery powered, tone-activated NOAA weather radio to monitor weather forecasts and warnings. Now is the time to check insurance coverage. Regular homeowner's policies do not cover flood damage, but special policies are available. However, they do not take effect until 30 days after they are purchased.

"This most important thing we can emphasize is personal responsibility," says English. "Know the threats and have a plan in place before a storm hits. Don't wait for someone else to take care of you." While Georgia's coast has not

experienced a direct hit by a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) since 1898, the state has been heavily impacted by tropical weather events over the years. NOAA records show that a total of four Category 2 hurricanes hit the Georgia coast near Savannah between 1911 and 1979, resulting in 68 deaths. In 1989, approximately 175,000 coastal Georgia residents evacuated in the face of Hurricane Hugo, which ultimately hit Charleston. In 1999, Hurricane Floyd threatened Georgia, forcing the evacuation of 3.5 million residents of the Atlantic coast, including an estimated 350,000 Georgians. In 1994, Tropical Storm Alberto stalled over north central Georgia and dumped 21 inches of rain in Americus in one 24-hour period. A presidential disaster declaration covering 55 counties was issued as a result. Most recently, after making landfall, Hurricane Katrina spawned 18 tornadoes across Georgia, the largest number of tornadoes to strike in one day in the state's history.

For more information on the hurricane season and on severe weather preparedness, visit OHS-GEMA's Web site at www.gema.state.ga.us. Other resources include the National Weather Service Web site at www.nws.noaa.gov, the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes site at www.flash.org, and the Red Cross Web site at www.redcross.org.